As we return from the summer break, this is a note on the outlook for the final quarter of 2026 — and an argument for why this is a moment to engage, not to wait.
The context, candidly
The first half of 2026 tested the region. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and heightened geopolitical tension weighed on trade, tourism and shipping, and led the Central Bank of the UAE to revise its 2026 growth forecast down to 1.7% — a sharp adjustment after an exceptional 2025, in which the economy expanded by 6.2%, led by non-hydrocarbon sectors growing at close to 7%.
It would be a mistake to minimise this. Freight and insurance costs rose, some investment decisions were postponed, and companies across the Gulf spent the spring stress-testing their supply chains. Any serious assessment of the market must start from that reality.
But it would be a greater mistake to misread it.
Why the fundamentals still point up
The Central Bank anticipates that the moderation is temporary, with recovery beginning in the second half of 2026 and a strong rebound projected for 2027 — approaching double digits — driven by expanding hydrocarbon output and a resumption of non-oil momentum.
More importantly, the structural picture never deteriorated. The federal fiscal position remains in surplus. Inflation is contained at around 2.3%. And in the very semester in which regional tensions peaked, the UAE recorded its highest-ever non-oil foreign trade: AED 1.94 trillion — over USD 527 billion — in the first half of the year alone, up 13.1% year on year, with non-oil exports reaching an all-time record of AED 452.8 billion.
Read those two facts together. A growth forecast cut to 1.7%, and record trade in the same six months. That is not a contradiction; it is the signature of an economy whose external engine kept accelerating even while regional headwinds compressed headline output. It is precisely the profile of a market you enter during the dip, not after it.
Three observations for Portuguese companies
1. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals are in structural acceleration. The launch of the Emirates Drug Establishment in early 2026 marked a genuine turning point in how the UAE regulates and develops its pharmaceutical sector. A single federal authority now oversees marketing authorisations, facility licensing and GMP certification; 37 manufacturing facilities have already been licensed for human pharmaceutical and medical products; and the Holistic National Manufacturing Project sets out an explicit national agenda to localise production across the full value chain — from active ingredients to packaging and distribution. This is a regulatory environment deliberately designed to attract international partners. Portuguese expertise in regulatory affairs, contract manufacturing and life sciences — built over decades of serving the European market to EMA standards — has a genuine window here, and windows of this kind do not stay open indefinitely.
2. Q4 is when decisions are made. The Gulf business calendar is unforgiving to latecomers. Between September and December, 2027 budgets are set, federal and local tenders are launched, and framework contracts are renewed. Supplier registration, ICV certification and portal onboarding all take weeks, not days. The practical consequence is simple: companies that arrive prepared in September shape outcomes; companies that arrive in November respond to them. If the UAE is on your 2027 map, the preparation happens now.
3. Regional volatility is not structural fragility. This distinction matters more than any single data point. The UAE absorbed the shocks of the first half with fiscal discipline, deep reserves and the benefit of genuine economic diversification — the same qualities that have made it the most predictable operating platform in the region through every previous cycle. Nor is the opportunity confined to one sector: the record trade figures underline the strength of logistics and re-export, while the national localisation agenda extends to food security, agritech and industrial inputs — all areas where Portuguese companies compete well.
An invitation
The Portuguese Business Council in Dubai, working in close coordination with the Embassy of Portugal in Abu Dhabi, stands ready to support Portuguese companies assessing or expanding their presence in the Emirates — from market intelligence and sector briefings to institutional introductions with federal and emirate-level entities.
To companies planning to compete in the 2027 tender cycle, my suggestion is concrete: reach out to the Council before the end of September, so that we can include you in our Q4 briefings on procurement, registration and sector opportunities while decisions are still being shaped.
The first half of 2026 rewarded prudence. The final quarter will reward preparation.
The rentrée is here. Let’s make it count.
